Odds Show That Brexit Hope Is Staying Alive

October 27, 2020

- Grant Whittington

An interesting disparity appears to be emerging in the UK politics betting market. With talks currently at what appears to be a Brexit impasse largely created by arguments over issues such as fisheries, state aid, and free trade, two definite orders have started to rise to prominence.

One the one side there’s UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson preaching all Brexit negotiations to be practically off the table and a No Deal Brexit stamped, sealed and delivered – whilst on the other, there are the bookies running betlines in favour of either a time extension or a successful Britain exit from the EU post January 1st.

UK bettors appear to be voting in favour of a likelihood the exact opposite of that anticipated by Johnson. Preparing for a No Deal simply has not resonated in terms of a likely rhetoric. And from how the betlines appear to be moving, the people are speaking louder than government.

Odds In Agreement With Barnier

Significant and worth noting also is that chief EU negotiator Michel Barnier’s sentiments appear to reflect the message seen on the betlines – and not that of the British Prime Minister. Despite the glaringly obvious challenges hanging like a double-edged sword over the possibility of a successful Brexit, talks could according to Barnier actually reopen instead of leading to a No Deal dead-end.

Commenting on the road ahead, Barnier said the doors of negotiation will remain wide open right until the very end of all possible processes and remedies. This, said Barnier, will be achieved by the making of crucially necessary compromises on both sides of the negotiations.

Fortune-Telling Odds

In terms of what has been happening with the bookies, two markets have emerged particularly prominent as far as a positive extension of the timeline is concerned – with some lines even reflecting a show of support in favour of the odds of a successful close-of-deal on the back of an actual due-date exit.

Those odds in support of a deal successfully closed before the end of 2020 have come in moving from 5/2 to 2/1. Meanwhile, odds in support of trade talks extending well into 2021 have come in from 1/1 to 1/2.

The odds are clearly telling of a British nation confident in the probability of middle-ground being about to be found between the UK and the European Union. Not unlike so many times in the past, the bookies appear to have spoken. And judging by so many other outcomes seen in past years, the bookies are very likely to emerge having knocked it right on the money.

Concede Or Else, Says Number 10

Trade talks, perhaps more significantly so than any other single bone of contention, have prompted the U.K. to place the ball in the court of European Union decision-makers. All trade talks will remain on hold until such time as the EU has changed its position on several other key aspects. The message has been voiced loud and clear: no budge, no motion in either direction.

If any single move has paved the way for a possible re-uptake of talks, then that move would have to be Barnier’s offer to indulge a double-sided compromise. A spokesperson for Number 10 has commented on Barnier’s stance by referring to the concession of a possible compromise as a significant show of commentary on those issues regarded to be the main antagonists within the context of difficult and to-date unsuccessful talks and negotiations.

The UK’s own Brexit negotiator, David Frost, will now enter into further discussions with Michel Barnier, confirmed the Downing Street spokesperson. Barring any unexpected hurdles or stoppages, further announcements in this regard are expected to be made in the very near future.

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