Football betting remains the dominant driver of sports betting in the UK, which is no surprise given the popularity of the sport and the innovative range of markets available.
Sports betting currently accounts for 37.1% of the virtual gross gaming yield, after growing by a compound annual growth rate rate of 7% between 2012 and 2015. This, along with the consolidation of offline sports betting in the UK, has helped form a growing industry that shows no sign of slowing down any time soon.
But how can you increase your chances of making money through football betting? In this post, we’ll show you how…
Understand the Relationship between Odds and Probability
When football bettors lay down their wagers for the weekend, they usually focus on the probability of the potential outcome, rather than the listed odds. This probability tends to be influenced by the tribal nature of football, with fans likely to back their teams regardless of their opponents or the surrounding circumstances.
However, this could be seen as an oversight: while the odds provided by bookmakers reflect the most likely outcome, they’re also designed to safeguard against large-scale losses.
For example, let’s say that EPL leaders Manchester City are playing League Two side Swindon in an FA Cup tie at the Etihad Stadium. While all but the most ardent Robins fans would place their money on a City win, bookmakers may provide a prohibitive, odds-on price that offers little in the way of value.
While we’re not saying that you should back Swindon in such a scenario, this means that you may be better served by seeking out in-game markets, or wagering on another match altogether.
The key is to consider the odds associated with each potential outcome, and try to identify the wagers that offer the most value and highest potential returns.
If it helps, you could consider looking at football odds in decimal format rather than traditional fractions. While this is not how odds are commonly displayed in the UK, it’s quicker to scan prices in this format and makes it easier to understand the value propositions associated with each potential bet.
Use Information, Rather than Emotion, as your Inspiration
As we’ve already touched on, football is an extremely competitive sport, with some fans betting on their favourite teams without taking into account the odds. This is a clear example of emotional sports betting, which is inherently based on predetermined notions, rather than the desire to make money from a wager.
It can be difficult to predict whether these bets will deliver a return over the course of a season, so it may be better to primarily bet on neutral matches where you have no team preference.
If you don’t use emotion to inform your bets, where should you turn? The primary factor for any bet should be data, particularly in an age where so much sports betting information is available online.
By analysing team form and individual player data, you can develop a better understanding of individual games and determine the most likely outcomes.
Listen to the Experts
Considering the opinions of former professionals or commentators can create a unique and helpful perspective, that in turn will help you make a more informed betting decision. The key is to identify these experts carefully. It’s important to review past performances and consider the criteria used to predict outcomes.
If a team is considerably weakened and without one or two of its key performers, this could change the value proposition of specific odds. This may enable you to back higher priced outcomes without compromising your chances of winning.
You can also find helpful information elsewhere: local writers who cover specific clubs may receive official team news before it’s made public, for example, while monitoring your team’s social media can offer a helpful insight.
With football betting growing more and more popular, knowing how to increase your chances of making money can make supporting your favourite team even more rewarding. To make the most of your bet, take a look at our football predictions and tips and follow us on twitter @bethutuk to keep up to date with the latest football news.